Introduction
Revenue forecasting is critical for business planning, fundraising, and strategic decisions. Flik generates comprehensive revenue models with key SaaS metrics, growth projections, and scenario analysis.
Key Metrics You Can Track
- MRR (Monthly Recurring Revenue): Subscription revenue per month
- ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue): MRR × 12
- Growth Rate: Month-over-month or year-over-year
- Churn Rate: Customer or revenue churn percentage
- Customer Lifetime Value (LTV): Average revenue per customer
- Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC): Cost to acquire each customer
Requesting a Revenue Forecast
Example request:
"Create a 24-month revenue forecast for my SaaS. Starting MRR: $80K, monthly growth: 12%, churn: 3% monthly. Track MRR, new customers, churned customers, net growth, and ARR."
Understanding Growth Models
Compound Growth
Revenue grows by a percentage each month. Month 1: $100K → Month 2: $110K (10% growth) → Month 3: $121K (10% on $110K). The AI calculates this automatically with formulas.
Linear Growth
Revenue increases by a fixed amount each month. Month 1: $100K → Month 2: $110K (+$10K) → Month 3: $120K (+$10K). Simpler but less realistic for most businesses.
Scenario Planning
Test different assumptions to see how they impact revenue:
- What if growth is 10% instead of 15%?
- How does 5% churn vs 3% churn affect ARR?
- What revenue do we need to hit $10M ARR?
Request: "Add scenario analysis comparing 10%, 15%, and 20% growth rates"
Tips for Accurate Forecasts
- Use realistic growth rates: Base on historical data when possible
- Include churn: Don't assume 0% churn - most SaaS has 2-5% monthly churn
- Model customer counts: Track both revenue and customers
- Plan for seasonality: Mention if your business has seasonal patterns
- Build multiple scenarios: Conservative, expected, and optimistic
Next Steps
- Creating Financial Models — Complete financial modeling
- Excel Spreadsheet Generation — General spreadsheets
- Building Presentation Decks — Present your forecasts